CYCLONE NARGIS

Cyclone Nargis (also known as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis) was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the deadliest natural disaster in the history of Myanmar. The cyclone made landfall in the country on 2 May '08, causing catastrophic destruction and at least 90,000 fatalities with a further 56,000 people still missing.

However, the Labutta Township alone was reported to have 80,000 dead, with about 10,000 more deaths in Bogale; the Burmese government's official death toll is grossly underreported as they have simply stopped counting the dead to minimize political fallout. It is feared and quite possible that due to lack of relief efforts, a total of a million already have or will die from this catastrophe.

Damage is estimated at over US$10 billion, which made it the most damaging cyclone ever recorded in this basin. It was also Myanmar's worst natural disaster overall, as well as being the deadliest.

(Picture from: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2008122-0501/Nargis.A2008122.0440.250m.jpg)

THE PHYSICS BEHIND CYCLONE NARGIS

On April 28, Nargis became nearly stationary while located between ridges to its northwest and southeast. That day the JTWC upgraded the storm to cyclone status, the equivalent of a minimal hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Around the same time, the IMD upgraded Nargis to a severe cyclonic storm. The cyclone developed a concentric eye feature, which is an eyewall outside the inner dominant eyewall, with warm waters aiding in further intensification.

Early on April 29, the JTWC estimated Nargis reached winds of 160 km/h (100 mph), and at the same time the IMD classified the system as a very severe cyclonic storm. Initially, the cyclone was forecast to strike Bangladesh or southeastern India. Subsequently, the cyclone became disorganized and weakened due to subsidence and drier air; as a result, deep convection near the center markedly decreased. At the same time, the storm began a motion to the northeast around the periphery of a ridge to its southeast. The circulation remained strong despite the diminishing convection, though satellite intensity estimates using the Dvorak technique indicated the cyclone could have weakened to tropical storm status.

By late on April 29, convection had begun to rebuild, though immediate restrengthening was prevented by increased wind shear. On May 1, after turning nearly due eastward, Cyclone Nargis began rapidly intensifying, due to greatly improved outflow in association with an approaching upper-level trough. Strengthening continued as it developed a well-defined eye with a diameter of 19 km (12 mi).

Early on May 2 the JTWC estimated the cyclone reached peak winds of 215 km/h (135 mph) as it approached the coast of Burma. At the same time, the IMD assessed Nargis as attaining peak winds of 165 km/h (105 mph). At around 12:00pm UTC, Cyclone Nargis made landfall in the Ayeyarwady Division of Burma. The storm gradually weakened over land, with its proximity to the Andaman Sea preventing rapid weakening. Its track turned to the northeast due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough to its northwest, passing just north of Yangon with winds of 130 km/h (80 mph).

Early on May 3 the IMD issued its final advisory on the storm. It quickly weakened after turning to the northeast toward the rugged terrain near the Burma-Thailand border, and after deteriorating to minimal tropical storm status, the JTWC issued its last advisory on Nargis.

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These were some extracts from Wiki! [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Nargis] I know teachers are not too fond of this source, but the other webs i browsed merely talked about the impact of the cyclone, and not much on the Physics behind it was explained. So here you go!

Will post more case studies next time.